P-Win (probability of win) is GovEagle's estimate of how likely you are to win an opportunity if you pursue it. GovEagle estimates P-Win in four places, and each one is built for a different decision, from first-look triage to a full Black Hat review.
P-Win is an AI-generated assessment, not a fixed formula applied the same way everywhere. Each estimate weighs a defined set of factors against the evidence GovEagle can find in your company profiles, content library, and opportunity workspace. The more context you give GovEagle, the more grounded the estimate.
P-Win at a glance
Use the bid agent score to triage, the workflows for a deep assessment, and watchlists to track P-Win over time.
| Where you see it | Best for | Format | How it's scored | Updates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bid agents (Opportunity Search) | Triage: which new opportunities are worth a closer look | 0–100% | Five factors, capability fit weighted most | Each time the bid agent reviews a batch |
| Black Hat workflow | Capture review: where you stand and what to fix | Weighted % from four factors scored 1–5 | Fixed weights: Solution Fit 30%, Customer Knowledge 25%, Competitive Position 25%, Relationship 20% | When you run the workflow |
| Price-to-Win workflow | Pricing and bid/no-bid | Band: <20%, 20–40%, 40–60%, 60–80%, >80% | Price competitiveness combined with a 1–5 capture score | When you run the workflow |
| Watchlists (Continuous Monitoring) | Tracking pipeline health over time | 0–100 | Preset prompt weighing six factors | On your cadence (weekly by default) or Run now |
Bid agents (Opportunity Search)
A bid agent gives a 0–100% P-Win for each opportunity it recommends you pursue. It's an early estimate for triage, not a final analysis. P-Win only appears on opportunities marked Pursue.
The bid agent weighs five factors against your company profile and content library:
- Capability fit (weighted most): how directly your technical skills and services match the stated requirements.
- Past performance: relevant prior contracts similar in scope, size, agency, or domain, found in your content library.
- Set-aside and eligibility: whether your size status, certifications, and socioeconomic designations match the solicitation's set-aside.
- Competition: expected number of bidders, incumbent strength, and whether it's a recompete or a new requirement.
- Strategic fit: alignment with your growth areas, preferred agencies, and geographic reach.
Read the score in bands:
| P-Win | Fit |
|---|---|
| Under 30% | Weak |
| 30–50% | Moderate |
| 50–70% | Strong |
| Over 70% | Very strong |
When evidence is thin, the bid agent stays conservative and scores toward the low end of a band. A complete company profile and a well-stocked content library are the best ways to get accurate scores. Sort results by PWIN (highest) to see the strongest matches first.
Black Hat workflow
The Black Hat is the only place GovEagle uses a fixed weighted formula. It scores four factors from 1 to 5, applies set weights, and reports the result as Weighted PWIN on the Capture Dashboard. The full breakdown appears in the Pwin Decomposition table, with a one-sentence, evidence-backed rationale for each score.
| Factor | Weight | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| Solution Fit | 30% | How well your solution meets the requirements |
| Customer Knowledge | 25% | How well you understand the customer's priorities, hot buttons, and decision makers |
| Competitive Position | 25% | Your non-price strength against the incumbent and likely competitors |
| Relationship | 20% | The depth of your relationship with the customer |
GovEagle combines the scores like this:
Weighted P-Win = (0.30 × Solution Fit + 0.25 × Customer Knowledge + 0.25 × Competitive Position + 0.20 × Relationship) ÷ 5 × 100%
For example, scores of 4, 3, 3, and 2 give a weighted score of 3.10 out of 5, or a Weighted P-Win of 62%.
Price is left out on purpose because the Price-to-Win workflow covers it. The Black Hat also names your lowest-scoring factor as the Capture Priority for the next 30 days, with a first concrete step to improve it.
Price-to-Win workflow
The Price-to-Win workflow reports P-Win as a band, not a single number, to avoid false precision. You'll find it as PWIN BAND in the Bottom Line Up Front and explained under Target Bid Price & Win Likelihood.
The band combines two inputs:
- Price competitiveness: where your target price is likely to fall against competitors, shown at the target price and at ±5%.
- Capture score (1–5, with evidence): customer relationship depth, past performance relevance, technical differentiation, incumbent advantage or disadvantage, and teaming strength.
The result falls into one of five bands: under 20%, 20–40%, 40–60%, 60–80%, or over 80%.
The workflow also uses P-Win in its Go / No-Go Recommendation. It weighs your expected bid and proposal cost against expected margin at the target price multiplied by P-Win. A Go requires a target price at or above your cost floor, price competitiveness of at least 50%, no structural disadvantage you can't resolve, and an adequate capture score.
Watchlists (Continuous Monitoring)
P-Win is a preset monitor you can add to any watchlist. It scores each opportunity from 0 to 100 and runs weekly by default.
The preset prompt weighs six factors:
- Incumbency and incumbent strength
- Your past performance and technical fit against the scope
- Agency relationships and customer intimacy
- Set-aside eligibility
- Expected price competitiveness
- How mature your capture activities are so far
GovEagle automatically provides the opportunity's solicitation, milestones, and recent notes. It also reviews the workspace's documents, tasks, and win strategies, plus any guidance you add for that opportunity. When key information is missing, it scores conservatively.
When P-Win updates: monitors run on the cadence you set (daily, weekly, or manual). They don't rerun automatically when you add new documents or intel. After you add something significant, like competitor intel from a conference, open the monitor's menu and select Run now to refresh the score.
Customizing P-Win for your organization
You can tailor every P-Win estimate to your own capture process.
| Where | How to customize |
|---|---|
| Bid agents | Add guidance in the bid agent's additional instructions, and use Disagree to give feedback the agent applies to future batches |
| Black Hat and Price-to-Win | Platform admins can edit the built-in workflows in Settings > Workflows (beta), for example to change factors or weights, and revert to the default at any time |
| Watchlists | Edit the P-Win monitor's Prompt to change what's assessed and how, and set its cadence |
Tips for better P-Win estimates
- Complete your company profiles. Bid agents score against them, so add capabilities, certifications, set-aside status, and preferred agencies. Create separate profiles for JVs and frequent teaming partners.
- Stock your content library. Past performance write-ups and CPARS give GovEagle evidence to cite.
- Feed the workspace. Add capture notes, competitor intel, and customer meeting notes to the opportunity so workflows and monitors have current information.
- Rerun after big changes. Run the workflow again, or select Run now on the watchlist monitor.
FAQ
Why do I see different P-Win numbers for the same opportunity?
Each feature uses different factors and inputs for a different purpose. A bid agent's score is a quick triage estimate from public data and your profile. A Black Hat score reflects everything in the workspace. Use the most detailed estimate available for bid decisions.
Is P-Win a guarantee?
No. P-Win is an evidence-based estimate to support your team's judgment, not a replacement for it. Always review the rationale behind the score.
Why is my P-Win low?
Usually because GovEagle couldn't find enough evidence, so it scored conservatively. Check the rationale to see which factor is weakest, then add the missing context.